Well, not exactly... but today was the end of the first half of the GP program. It seems like time is flying by. The past two weeks have reminded me of coming to the end of the semester at college when all your projects and assignments come due. In addition to our regular workload, there were also a couple longer-term projects that had to be finished before the break. Consequently, the days (and nights) have been packed and sleep was lower on the priority list. However, though there was a lot of work, it wasn't too stressful, which makes a big difference.
A couple of the sessions we've had recently include Present with Power and Strategic Problem Solving. The Present with Power session was focused on communicating with impact. The consultant shared a number of really valuable principles to keep in mind when creating a presentation and was also a rich source of tips and tricks. I was amazed how quickly he could take a situation and craft the perfect way of communicating, quite a skill to have. After this session, the bar was really raised for our next presentations! Shortly afterwards, we had to individually present an overview of our local practice - what kind of work we do and what our local market was like. Hearing each person describe their work highlighted a number of the similarities and differences across territories and also gave me a much better understanding of the range of services PwC provides, especially in the Advisory line of service.
The Strategic Problem Solving module presented a framework for approaching a problem and was based on the McKinsey model of analyzing an issue. The theory they presented - define your key question, construct an Issues Tree that addresses everything you'll need to know to answer your question, organize the research, conduct the analysis, and determine the results - was very logical and was especially helpful in showing how a large question or issue could become manageable with the right approach. It was a 2-day session, with most of the time allocated to team exercises. In our teams, we were given a large, business case and had to apply the strategic problem solving concepts to solve it with the final output being a presentation of recommendations to the company's board. This project was one of the culprits that contributed to the lack of sleep, as most teams were in the office until past midnight finalizing their results/presentation. The exercise led nicely into our coming strategic projects.
While the first half of the program is structured to teach us various analytical, leadership, and communication tools, the second half is focused on a strategic project where we can implement and practice much of what we learned. However, the stakes are higher because each strategic project is sponsored by one or more senior partners who have a vested interest in the output. There are 3 project teams in Berlin and the one I am working on is developing a strategy for the Public Sector in Germany. It is sponsored by the leader of the German Public Sector. Luckily for our team, his office is in the same building as GP, so hopefully we'll have plenty of opportunities to interact with him during the course of the project.
Well, that's a summary of the program content of the past couple weeks. In the next day or two I'll also post more about some of my recent weekend trips. I'm coming back to Baltimore this Saturday and will be around for almost 2 weeks, so hopefully I'll have a chance to catch up with many of you during that time.
Showing posts with label GP Program. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GP Program. Show all posts
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
A Whole New World
The past week or so we have been doing a module on scenario planning. It was an entirely new process for me, but very interesting and stimulating. So I thought I'd share the basics with you (and prove that I don't spend all my time gallivanting around Europe!).
The basic concept behind scenario planning is that you imagine what the world would look like if X and Y happened, and then determine what the implications for your company would be in that hypothetical scenario. It's a very creative, imaginative process because you're trying to stretch your mind to envision a future that nobody has conceived. It's different than strategic planning because each scenario is highly uncertain, so you're not trying to determine a single course of action. Our background reading described it as, "The purpose of the exercise is not to come up with a forecast, because you know it will be wrong. Instead, it's to draw a circle around multiple possibilities and think about whether you are prepared to face the range of futures that might unfold." Or, said another way, scenario planning is about moving beyond the "official future."
You start scenario planning by choosing a focal question to investigate. For example, how will evolving regulation impact our Assurance business? or, how will changes in the competitive landscape impact the firm's business model? The question usually has long range consequences or deals with upcoming decisions.
Once the focal issue is defined, you brainstorm and research all the driving forces that affect and influence the focal issue. These could be in any number of areas including social (changes in population, demographics), economic (international trade, growth of emerging markets), political and technological. The driving forces you identify will either be predetermined (i.e. aging population) or uncertain (change in the value of the dollar). The predetermined driving forces are excluded from scenario planning, though if they're important the company should be including them in its strategic plan. The uncertainties are what you're concerned about for scenario planning.
Once you've identified the uncertainties affecting your issue, you choose the two most critical uncertainties and plot them on an X and Y axis. For example, you might have an X axis that is high value of the dollar at one end and low value of the dollar at the other. This could be paired with a Y axis that has a strong, capitalist economy in Russia on one end and a weak, protectionist Russian economy at the other. The 4 quadrants formed by these 2 axes create your 4 different worlds, or scenarios. For each scenario, you create a narrative or description of what the world looks like given those two particular scenarios and what events occurred to bring you to that point. The challenge is to both stretch beyond known facts and also keep the scenario plausible.
After the scenarios are defined, you assess the implications the new world would have on your company and then determine what warning signs would indicate that the world is moving to that scenario. Then, when you see these warning signs that would be the time for a company to take the scenario and begin forming a strategic plan.
If you've made it this far through this post, congratulations! I'll shift from the conceptual background and briefly highlight the results of my team's scenario planning. We were divided into 4 teams with each team responsible for creating and presenting a set of scenarios. My team decided to address the focal question, "How will the changing nature of the 21st century work environment impact our firm?" The two key uncertainties we chose were the Perception of Technology (positive or negative) and Human Connectivity, meaning the relationships and loyalty we have to our companies and fellow employees. These led to some interesting scenarios - everything from the resurgence of guilds to the establishment of a PwC University.
The most enjoyable part of this project has been all the side conversations it stimulated within our group even though they ended up being totally unrelated: Should PwC Global be investing in India? Does modernization necessarily lead to a maturity? What would happen if you could genetically engineer the perfect auditor (yeah, that would be scary)? Does the president of Bolivia always wear sweaters? ....Our group was definitely not the most efficient, but we certainly got a lot out of the project!
The basic concept behind scenario planning is that you imagine what the world would look like if X and Y happened, and then determine what the implications for your company would be in that hypothetical scenario. It's a very creative, imaginative process because you're trying to stretch your mind to envision a future that nobody has conceived. It's different than strategic planning because each scenario is highly uncertain, so you're not trying to determine a single course of action. Our background reading described it as, "The purpose of the exercise is not to come up with a forecast, because you know it will be wrong. Instead, it's to draw a circle around multiple possibilities and think about whether you are prepared to face the range of futures that might unfold." Or, said another way, scenario planning is about moving beyond the "official future."
You start scenario planning by choosing a focal question to investigate. For example, how will evolving regulation impact our Assurance business? or, how will changes in the competitive landscape impact the firm's business model? The question usually has long range consequences or deals with upcoming decisions.
Once the focal issue is defined, you brainstorm and research all the driving forces that affect and influence the focal issue. These could be in any number of areas including social (changes in population, demographics), economic (international trade, growth of emerging markets), political and technological. The driving forces you identify will either be predetermined (i.e. aging population) or uncertain (change in the value of the dollar). The predetermined driving forces are excluded from scenario planning, though if they're important the company should be including them in its strategic plan. The uncertainties are what you're concerned about for scenario planning.
Once you've identified the uncertainties affecting your issue, you choose the two most critical uncertainties and plot them on an X and Y axis. For example, you might have an X axis that is high value of the dollar at one end and low value of the dollar at the other. This could be paired with a Y axis that has a strong, capitalist economy in Russia on one end and a weak, protectionist Russian economy at the other. The 4 quadrants formed by these 2 axes create your 4 different worlds, or scenarios. For each scenario, you create a narrative or description of what the world looks like given those two particular scenarios and what events occurred to bring you to that point. The challenge is to both stretch beyond known facts and also keep the scenario plausible.
After the scenarios are defined, you assess the implications the new world would have on your company and then determine what warning signs would indicate that the world is moving to that scenario. Then, when you see these warning signs that would be the time for a company to take the scenario and begin forming a strategic plan.
If you've made it this far through this post, congratulations! I'll shift from the conceptual background and briefly highlight the results of my team's scenario planning. We were divided into 4 teams with each team responsible for creating and presenting a set of scenarios. My team decided to address the focal question, "How will the changing nature of the 21st century work environment impact our firm?" The two key uncertainties we chose were the Perception of Technology (positive or negative) and Human Connectivity, meaning the relationships and loyalty we have to our companies and fellow employees. These led to some interesting scenarios - everything from the resurgence of guilds to the establishment of a PwC University.
The most enjoyable part of this project has been all the side conversations it stimulated within our group even though they ended up being totally unrelated: Should PwC Global be investing in India? Does modernization necessarily lead to a maturity? What would happen if you could genetically engineer the perfect auditor (yeah, that would be scary)? Does the president of Bolivia always wear sweaters? ....Our group was definitely not the most efficient, but we certainly got a lot out of the project!
Monday, November 12, 2007
Global Trends
This afternoon we had a consultant from the Eurasia Group visit our class. This group works with the PwC leadership to identify global trends and assess the various strategies PwC should consider pursuing. It was an interesting discussion to have in such a diverse group where everyone could contribute their first-hand understanding of situations in their home countries. While nothing presented was earth shattering, I appreciated being able to fit my understanding of current events into the broader perspective. Here is a brief summary of the "5 Global Trends to Watch in the Next 3-5 Years."
1) Realignment of Power: In the past, the U.S. was the global policeman, the driver of growth and was generally perceived as a safe harbor for investment. Emerging markets were thought to be highly risky due to their uncertain political positions. Now, there is a shift in the balance of power where the U.S. is really seen as an exporter of risk (both politically such as in Iraq and Iran, and economically as in the current credit debacle). By contrast, emerging markets are the focus of growth and are perceived as safe investments. During the August credit crunch, while the U.S. markets were falling, the emerging markets held fairly constant and were the surprising object of a "flight to safety."
Another interesting comment that was made when we were discussing this point related to the effect of the U.S. economy. Even if the U.S. economy dips into a recession in the coming months, while it may cause a recession in the EU, it is unlikely to impact China. The Chinese government has a sufficient supply of capital to flood the market and they also have a vested interest in maintaining their economic stability leading up to the 2008 Olympics.
2) Realignment of Capital: Following from the point above, there is a huge inflow of capital into the emerging markets - both from developed countries and, perhaps more significantly, from other emerging markets (e.g. large investment by one of China's banks in South Africa's largest bank). The investor base is broadening to more often include Asian central bank reserves, sovereign wealth funds, private equity and hedge funds.
3) Growing State Intervention in Markets: There is a rising protectionist sentiment which is causing governments to intervene in more ways, such as immigration restrictions, environment and health & safety regulations (think Mattel) . In the U.S. there is also a concern that foreign investment in U.S. companies is too significant, which will only make FDI approval more politicized. These concerns are frequently driven by national security issues (think Dubai Ports controversy). Increasingly global M&A's will be scrutinized and U.S brands will be targets of foreign companies. The implication for companies is that they will have to do a lot more leg work at the beginning of the investment process to clear the regulatory path.
4) New Energy & Climate Environment: Investments in nuclear, natural gas and other alternative energy solutions will continue to increase. In the U.S., environmental policies will increasingly be another point of political friction.
5) Technology and Innovation: Emerging markets are increasingly seen as sources of innovation and are using this to attract further investment. Another aspect of this point is that recruiting and retaining talented human capital will continue to be crucial for success.
We spent less time discussing the last two points because by that time our group had somewhat hijacked the discussion. :-) We talked about the comparative advantages of China and India and also what countries might become the emerging markets in the next 10-20 years following China, India, Russia and Brazil.
1) Realignment of Power: In the past, the U.S. was the global policeman, the driver of growth and was generally perceived as a safe harbor for investment. Emerging markets were thought to be highly risky due to their uncertain political positions. Now, there is a shift in the balance of power where the U.S. is really seen as an exporter of risk (both politically such as in Iraq and Iran, and economically as in the current credit debacle). By contrast, emerging markets are the focus of growth and are perceived as safe investments. During the August credit crunch, while the U.S. markets were falling, the emerging markets held fairly constant and were the surprising object of a "flight to safety."
Another interesting comment that was made when we were discussing this point related to the effect of the U.S. economy. Even if the U.S. economy dips into a recession in the coming months, while it may cause a recession in the EU, it is unlikely to impact China. The Chinese government has a sufficient supply of capital to flood the market and they also have a vested interest in maintaining their economic stability leading up to the 2008 Olympics.
2) Realignment of Capital: Following from the point above, there is a huge inflow of capital into the emerging markets - both from developed countries and, perhaps more significantly, from other emerging markets (e.g. large investment by one of China's banks in South Africa's largest bank). The investor base is broadening to more often include Asian central bank reserves, sovereign wealth funds, private equity and hedge funds.
3) Growing State Intervention in Markets: There is a rising protectionist sentiment which is causing governments to intervene in more ways, such as immigration restrictions, environment and health & safety regulations (think Mattel) . In the U.S. there is also a concern that foreign investment in U.S. companies is too significant, which will only make FDI approval more politicized. These concerns are frequently driven by national security issues (think Dubai Ports controversy). Increasingly global M&A's will be scrutinized and U.S brands will be targets of foreign companies. The implication for companies is that they will have to do a lot more leg work at the beginning of the investment process to clear the regulatory path.
4) New Energy & Climate Environment: Investments in nuclear, natural gas and other alternative energy solutions will continue to increase. In the U.S., environmental policies will increasingly be another point of political friction.
5) Technology and Innovation: Emerging markets are increasingly seen as sources of innovation and are using this to attract further investment. Another aspect of this point is that recruiting and retaining talented human capital will continue to be crucial for success.
We spent less time discussing the last two points because by that time our group had somewhat hijacked the discussion. :-) We talked about the comparative advantages of China and India and also what countries might become the emerging markets in the next 10-20 years following China, India, Russia and Brazil.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
I'm an ISFP (Introvert, Sensing, Feeling, Perceiving)
The past two days of the Genesis Park program have been focused on team building, with specific emphasis on learning what our Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) is and how that impacts our interactions with the rest of the group. You can refer to this site for an succinct summary of MBTI, if interested. It was very helpful that they organized the program to present this topic after we've had a couple weeks to work together, because we could really identify with each others' results based on our experience.
My scores for the first three traits were really low, indicating that I'm more in the middle for these. Also, since the first three were so low, I had to evaluate which side of the spectrum I most thought I fell on. My true test results originally showed me as INTP (Introvert, Intuition, Thinking, Perceiving), but after reading the descriptions and discussing the individual traits with the coaches, I landed on my final type. Here is how ISFPs are described (I'll spare you the full 2-page analysis):
"Low-key, flexible, and modest, ISFPs work well when they can meet the individual needs of people in a direct and personal manner. Valuing harmony and tolerance, they are genuine, sincere, and open minded. They enhance their work environments by ensuring that people are cared for with kindness and artistry."
By way of comparison, here is the description for the INTP (my initial type):
"Analytical, intellectual, and ingenious, INTPs work well when they can operate independently, search for truth, and use rational approaches to solve complex problems. Their curiosity leads them to research theories, contemplate what makes things work, and discover the long-term consequences of any given strategy or plan."
What do you think? Does one describe me better than another? I'd also be very curious to hear from anyone else who has done MBTI what their type is? I found an online test you could take if interested: MBTI test. Interestingly, I'm the only ISFP in our group. Probably not surprising in a group of accountants, at least half of the group fell out in the E or I STJ type (Sensing, Thinking, Judging).
In unrelated news, I booked a flight to Vienna today for Thanksgiving weekend to meet up with a friend from the UK! So my first travel adventure is officially in the works!!
My scores for the first three traits were really low, indicating that I'm more in the middle for these. Also, since the first three were so low, I had to evaluate which side of the spectrum I most thought I fell on. My true test results originally showed me as INTP (Introvert, Intuition, Thinking, Perceiving), but after reading the descriptions and discussing the individual traits with the coaches, I landed on my final type. Here is how ISFPs are described (I'll spare you the full 2-page analysis):
"Low-key, flexible, and modest, ISFPs work well when they can meet the individual needs of people in a direct and personal manner. Valuing harmony and tolerance, they are genuine, sincere, and open minded. They enhance their work environments by ensuring that people are cared for with kindness and artistry."
By way of comparison, here is the description for the INTP (my initial type):
"Analytical, intellectual, and ingenious, INTPs work well when they can operate independently, search for truth, and use rational approaches to solve complex problems. Their curiosity leads them to research theories, contemplate what makes things work, and discover the long-term consequences of any given strategy or plan."
What do you think? Does one describe me better than another? I'd also be very curious to hear from anyone else who has done MBTI what their type is? I found an online test you could take if interested: MBTI test. Interestingly, I'm the only ISFP in our group. Probably not surprising in a group of accountants, at least half of the group fell out in the E or I STJ type (Sensing, Thinking, Judging).
In unrelated news, I booked a flight to Vienna today for Thanksgiving weekend to meet up with a friend from the UK! So my first travel adventure is officially in the works!!
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